There should never, ever be a sense of inevitability about golf. Too much can go wrong, especially in a major championship. One half-bad swing, one gust of wind, one silly club selection can unravel it all, can turn apparent victory to disaster. And then there's the issue of rain. This weekend, it softened Medinah No. 3 to such a degree that somebody teeing off early Sunday could come out and drop a 63 on the field and leave the leaders slack-jawed.
That's what we're left with at the PGA Championship, looking for scenarios in which Tiger Woods would not win his 12th major championship on Sunday. And each pretty much is a stretch. There is indeed a sense of inevitability that Woods will win here because he is playing nearly as well as he did when he won seven of 11 majors, and because he already is at the top of the leader board, tied with local darling Luke Donald at 14 under after throwing a course record-tying 65 out there in the third round. And when Tiger is in the lead or holds a share of the lead, it isn't good for the field.
He's 36-3 on the PGA Tour when leading or sharing the lead, 43-5 worldwide. He's the most ruthless finisher in the history of professional golf.
And he's so in control of his game that it would take a set of almost unimaginably oddball circumstances to knock him off in the final round.
Everybody in the field spent Saturday firing at pins because long, hard rains Friday night turned Medinah's greens into a sponge. "Even if you hit the ball above the hole, it's not that difficult," Woods said. "It's different than most major championships when you hit greens this soft and fairways this soft. And the greens being basically this slow, you're going to have to make a bunch of birdies."
It's almost too easy, really. Tiger would never disrespect the game or taunt the vengeful golf gods by saying that exactly. But he acknowledged that it isn't supposed to be as easy as Mother Nature has made it here, that "8 under" is a respectable score for winning a major, not, oh, 20 under par, which could very easily be the winning score. Asked if he can remember any circumstance in which the course played so easily in a major championship, Tiger said: "No, I haven't seen greens playing like this, not this soft. Every ball is plugging at the flag."
What, this is a problem for him?
Nothing's been a problem for him lately. He won the final Western Open here in the Chicago area in July, then went on to win the British Open, then the Buick Open. Pretty much all he's done since missing the cut at the U.S. Open following the death of his father is win tournaments. He may not be winning by the margins he did earlier in the decade, but that's largely because the field is more competitive now. While the margins aren't as lopsided, Tiger is nonetheless thought to be the inevitable winner when he is playing well, which probably has never happened in the modern history of the game.
You thought Jack Nicklaus could win, or might win, or in some cases, like at Augusta National, probably would win.
But it never seemed inevitable.
FOR SUBSCRIBERSA harrowing ordeal aboard an Israel-bound plane
FOR SUBSCRIBERSThe debate over AI’s future rages on both coasts
FOR SUBSCRIBERSA harrowing ordeal aboard an Israel-bound plane
FOR SUBSCRIBERSThe debate over AI’s future rages on both coasts
And since missing the cut at the U.S. Open, that's how it seems for Woods.
Sometimes, all you need to do is listen. Someone asked Woods if, after missing the cut at the U.S. Open, he could have imagined going on a roll in which he'd win three straight, including a major, and be in position to win another one. Woods, no fan of braggadocio or false modesty, said: "Mm-hmm. I figured I was going to enter a few more tournaments after that U.S. Open, so yes."
The question now, after 54 holes, is who's going to stop him here?
Phil Mickelson, at 8 under, is too far back. So is Sergio Garcia, at 10 under. It's not that a four-stroke lead is impossible to overcome, it's just that Garcia has been so shaky on Sundays with something big on the line it would be silly to extend him the benefit of the doubt. Mike Weir, who has won a major, also tied the course record with a 65 on Saturday. And while he has won seven tournaments since his meltdown in the final round on this same golf course in the 1999 PGA Championship, one has to wonder if Weir will suffer any effects from that final-round 80 he shot when paired with Woods that day. Weir, flashing back to that day, recalled: "I was uptight. I just wasn't calm about it. . . . No question it was painful." Weir recalled feeling "spacey . . . kind of spun out."
It's impossible to hear that and not wonder how much of that is directly attributable to being paired with Woods, whose galleries are uncommonly loud and mobile. Tiger, having won four times in Chicago in his career, is as beloved here as Mickelson is in New York. But there might be some divided loyalties Sunday because Donald has lived in Chicago since winning the NCAA championship as a Northwestern University student in 1999. He has two PGA Tour victories and two European victories. He played with Nicklaus during the Golden Bear's final British Open round last year, so he is hardly a neophyte.
But he knows Tiger rolls over people when he's even or ahead. He talked about Sunday being "a little bit different," though he must know it will be massively different. "I don't know whether the local support," he said, "will outweigh Tiger's kind of army following him."