Democrats see signsof hope in Senate

What a difference a few months can make in politics, particularly on Capitol Hill during an election year.

Democrats have become increasingly hopeful they can defy conventional wisdom and win back control of the closely divided Senate from President Bush’s Republican Party in the November contests.

To be sure, Republicans are favored to retain or even narrowly expand their majority, which would allow them to continue to set a conservative Senate agenda, from tax cuts to anti-abortion judicial nominees.

Yet Democrats are talking upset largely as result of a recent rise in the number of competitive individual Senate races.

They are also buoyed by a drop in Bush’s approval rating to about 50 percent and, to a limited extent, a vow by failed Democratic White House contender Howard Dean to help fellow progressives get elected to Congress.

“Democrats are still pushing a rock uphill, but things have definitely improved for them,” said Jennifer Duffy of the Cook Political Report.

'More states in play'
Stu Rothenberg of the Rothenberg Political Report said, “The numbers still favor Republicans. But Democrats have reason to feel better. There are now more states in play.”

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Republicans now control the Senate with 51 of the 100 seats. Overall, 34 seats will be up for election this year; 15 are held by Republicans, 19 by Democrats.

On the other side of Capitol Hill, Republicans appear certain to retain control of the House of Representatives, where they enjoy a broader majority — 228 to 205 Democrats, with one independent and one vacancy.

Among the 10 Senate races seen as possibly the most competitive, Democrats are on the defense in six of them, including in South Dakota where Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle faces a challenge from ex-Rep. John Thune.

Democrats recently got a big lift when Sen. Ben Nighthorse Campbell, a popular Colorado Republican, decided not to seek reelection. Colorado Attorney General Ken Salazar is the top contender for the Democratic nomination to succeed him.

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Opportunities in Oklahoma, Illinois
Democrats also see opportunities in Oklahoma and Illinois, where Republican incumbents are retiring. Republicans hope to pick up at least a few of the five seats being vacated by retiring southern Democrats.

Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski is viewed as the Republicans’ most vulnerable incumbent after being appointed to the seat by her father, Gov. Frank Murkowski. Former Alaska Gov. Tony Knowles is seen as a formidable Democratic challenger.

Duffy said Democrats have managed to attract “strong candidates” in several states while Republicans face a number of potentially bruising primaries, including in Pennsylvania where Sen. Arlen Specter is challenged by Rep. Pat Toomey. Other competitive Republican primaries are expected in Oklahoma, Florida and South Carolina.

Bush and his Democratic challenger, Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts, will be factors in Senate races. Polls now show them running about neck and neck for the White House.

“If Republicans can portray Kerry as a liberal and define the Democratic party as Kerry’s party, that will be trouble for Democrats in the South,” Rothenberg said.

Potential problems for Bush
He said Bush could be a problem in a number of states if polls continue to show that about half the country believes the nation is on the “wrong track.”

Dean had trouble drawing votes for his own insurgent White House bid. Yet the former Vermont governor’s vow to battle ”right-wing ideologues” by providing a hand to progressives in selected local, state and federal elections gives his party another glimmer of hope in the Senate.

Sen. George Allen of Virginia, chairman of the Senate Republican campaign committee, said he does not fear Kerry or Dean. “Bring Kerry and Dean down to the South. Our guys would be shaking,” Allen said with a grin. “I’m happy where we are.”

Sen. Jon Corzine, chairman of the Senate Democratic campaign committee, said, “Howard Dean will be a hell of a spokesman for candidates of a certain ilk.” Flashing a grin of his own, Corzine said: “We’re going to win.”