When you have been watching the weather as long as I have, you tend to be hard to impress when big storms come along. That's a fancy way of saying that in my eye not all storms are created equal. Sure I enjoy the challenge of predicting cyclones, but few energize my brain as much as the REALLY BIG ONES.
Last week I had that urge with Frances to a small extent, but as I author this column after midnight Sunday, I must tell you that I have experienced flashbacks to 1969 tonight as I watched Ivan make his way through the Northern Caribbean Sea. I will explain why shortly. First things First though.
Funny, but last week when Hurricane Frances passed through as a waterlogged low pressure area, everyone seemed interested in her assault on our region. At the grocery store, the clerk asked me if she "was still a cat 5" storm? When I picked up my dry clean, a nice lady in line asked me if she "was going to get flooded again"? I guess it just goes to show you that Mark Twain had it right. Everyone talks about the weather but nobody does anything about it.
Now back to Ivan the Terrible. I did some on-line research to confirm my recollection of the Russian Czar of the 1500's. Ivan earned his reputation as the first "mean" ruler of Russia, a tyrant who ascended to prominence through his bloodlines. He was actually heir to the throne at age three. Given how Ivan "the hurricane" has behaved the past week, I see no reason to name this tempest anything but IVAN THE TERRIBLE II. I state that since Ivan is already responsible for 60 deaths in his rampage through the Caribbean since last week. In fact, the island of Grenada off the South American coast resembles a war zone after Ivan pummeled that impoverished isle last week.
This weekend, Ivan made his way just south of both Jamaica and Grand Cayman dishing out hurricane force winds of 100+ miles per hour and torrents of rain which produced life threatening flash floods and mudslides. A late jog south spared both isles a more devastating blow. No big deal you say as far as those big hurricanes go, right? Well, on the surface I agree, but now consider Ivan has not struck land directly yet! You see the fiercest winds housed by his cumulo-nimbi thunderheads (160 miles per hour at last measurement late Sunday night) have so far stay over open water, not punishing any one land mass or island. In fact a quote from a 25 year hurricane hunter veteran last night went something like this...I paraphrase..."I have flown in many storms the past 25 years and only Mitch in 1998 showed anything even close to this storm's fury." His voice quivered (as did mine last night on the air) when he added, "this looks really bad".
Late Sunday night, it appeared that Ivan was just going to miss the western tip of Cuba and perhaps just graze the resorts of Cancun and Cozumel on the East coast of Mexico. Both areas would have hurricane conditions (Like Jamaica and Grand Cayman) but likely be spared a direct strike as Ivan made his way unimpeded into the Gulf of Mexico. From there, Ivan will be over a bathwater warm ocean with relatively favorable upper air winds from which to either maintain his intensity or (gulp) perhaps grow even stronger! Can you imagine sitting in New Orleans (which is situated below sea level on the gulf) or at Panama City, Florida (where college kids blow off steam every spring) and knowing that in 4 days a calamity could occur?
OK, enough rhetorical license. Let's get down to the nitty-gritty. Ivan's slow northward motion the next 2-3 days means that Gulf Coast residents from the French Quarter to North Florida will now be the ones who board up and are evacuated. With each passing hour, barring an unexpected turn back to the east, Floridians on the west coast of the sunshine state will start to breathe easier.
My favorite computer model takes Ivan into Mobile Bay on an eerily similar path to Camille of 1969 fame. I mention Camille because I remember tracking her on a family vacation back in the summer of '69. Sure we put a man on the moon that summer, but it was a Lady named Camille that inspired me to be a meteorologist back in the 60s. She was in my book the greatest hurricane of my lifetime!
For the record, Camille landed in Pass Christian, Mississippi and devastated everything in her path as she roared onshore. Ivan has that in him if he decides to live up to his legendary sister's reputation and that of the Russian Czar of the 1500s.
I will update this column every night after midnight this week, so plan on checking with me at WSAZ.COM all week long! And by all means say a prayer for those already affected and those who may be in Ivan's crosshairs later this week.