Ivan the Terrible: A disaster in the making? - Part 3

Charleston - Huntington, WV It's 1:00 Wednesday morning and as I sit here at the weather office and ponder how Ivan will behave the next 5 days, I am reminded of why I chose to study meteorology at Penn State. You see, while my mom wanted me to be a doctor (yes, I would have made a ton of money), it was my dad who first recognized my talent and passion for weather. So I doomed myself to a life of poverty (just kidding) to pursue my calling. Goes to show you, money isn't everything!

Here's the latest from the National Hurricane Center. Ivan's course has steadied and we are becoming more certain that he will strike between Mobile Bay, Alabama and Pensacola Florida by dawn Thursday. His winds have maintained a steady 140 miles per hour and Ivan will go onshore as a category 4 storm in all likelihood. That's rather momentous in itself. But if you read my article from Sunday night and compare Ivan with Camille you can take heart that Ivan will not live up to his legendary sister's reputation.

College students planning your 2005 spring break, this track will pummel your favorite watering hole at Panama City beach with huge dune battering waves and winds near 100 miles per hour. But the brunt of the storm will be just up the coast near Fort Walton Beach where winds near 125 mph will likely be felt.

From there, Ivan will weaken steadily once on land as he loses his steroid supply of warm water (see Monday's posting). Winds to 75 miles per hour will be felt well inland to Montgomery, Alabama and even Atlanta Georgia, but by Friday dawn, Ivan will be mainly a torrential rain and tornado producer in Dixie.

Now, Thundering herd fans, this storm will impact you in several ways. First, you are in for a wet drive to Athens Friday. I will use my Thursday posting to recommend a route south to Bulldog country (I-77, I-75 or RT23). And remember, low ceilings with rain here will translate to fog in the mountains, so a trip across Jellico Mountain into Tennessee, if you take the I-75 route, will be especially slow in the high elevations.

Secondly, I expect a deluge to swamp much of Georgia, Alabama and Southern Tennessee Thursday through Saturday. River flooding is likely. Keith and I had an interesting chat on Tuesday. I broached the question if a game would be called off due to rain? My gut tells me no, the Herd plays "between the hedges" in a swamp and Uga's (Georgia mascot) growl is dampened by heavy rain. Herd fans, it will be rainier in Athens than it was for the Battle of the Bell with Ohio U a few Thanksgiving Friday's ago when a monsoon soaked the stadium. Of course, Ivan is a tropical storm and that means a very humid rain, much more comfortable than a Huntington November rain.

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Finally Herd fans, I expect the GMAC bowl stadium to get rocked with hurricane force winds for a second time. As I recall, hurricane Isadore pounded Mobile bay and knocked the scoreboard out just 2 years ago.

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FOR SUBSCRIBERSCBP leaders cut out of Trump ad buy decision

FOR SUBSCRIBERSAmerican passenger drafted goodbye texts to her family as Flydubai plane plummeted

FOR SUBSCRIBERSCornell rape allegation pushes embattled New York prosecutor into national spotlight

FOR SUBSCRIBERSAbdul El-Sayed tries to woo MAHA voters as Democrats seek inroads with RFK’s supporters

FOR SUBSCRIBERSKratom-like substances are popping up in a typically benign supplement

FOR SUBSCRIBERSGOP super PAC increases its spending for Sen. Jon Husted in tough Ohio race

FOR SUBSCRIBERSRecords reveal tumultuous marriage between slain New York Times executive and wife

FOR SUBSCRIBERSFrom clean energy warrior to ‘wall of shame,’ James Talarico reverses on a fossil fuel money pledge

FOR SUBSCRIBERSCongressional staff planned official trip with luxury stops in Italy and France weeks before election

FOR SUBSCRIBERSA harrowing ordeal aboard an Israel-bound plane

FOR SUBSCRIBERSOpenAI CEO Sam Altman to skip congressional hearing on rogue AI agents

FOR SUBSCRIBERSKey DOJ lawyers departed Trump ‘grand conspiracy’ probe amid pressure to produce, source says

FOR SUBSCRIBERSTrump’s new AI chatbot often links to a site launched under Clinton 26 years ago

FOR SUBSCRIBERSAt MAHA summit, industry CEOs the movement once vilified take the stage

FOR SUBSCRIBERSThis Paralympian has two goals: Win medals and give away $500,000 to her teammates

WVU fans, I haven't forgotten you. I expect less rain to reach Morgantown on Saturday, though I am not prepared to say it will be dry at Mountaineer field. My early call, some showers for the 'Eers-Terps showdown.

As for our weather...until Ivan strikes land and we determine his track thereafter, it is unwise to predict how much rain will fall in our region. My gut says we get some heavy rains a'la Frances, but likely with a different distribution. Recall, last week 3"-5" fell along the Ohio River, while only 1"-3" fell along the Big Sandy and Kanawha. Could those numbers be flip flopped this go round? Will upslope winds ring out even heavier rains in the Greenbrier and New River Valleys? Or will Ivan stall far enough south to spare us a big flood? These are questions that we can only answer as the storm gets closer to our region.

I will address our weather in detail starting with Thursday's posting.