Surprise! Plenty of middle ground in ACC

Much of what was expected from the vaunted ACC has held to form as the conference reaches the midpoint of its first season using an unbalanced schedule. The surprises? Miami and Virginia Tech — the two schools that just joined the ACC.

The ACC newcomers were expected to finish near the bottom of what was touted as the country's best men's college basketball league this season, and maybe the finest in years. Instead, the two former Big East schools have a combined nine conference victories, which has made forecasting the number of NCAA tournament bids the ACC will garner more difficult than usual.

The consensus among analysts and coaches before the season was that the ACC would likely deserve six or possibly seven bids. Five weeks until selection Sunday, that appraisal appears optimistic simply because the league's depth has yielded a congested group of teams in the middle of the standings.

"We all knew at the start it wouldn't end up with five [ACC] teams in the top 10, because you have losses when you play each other," North Carolina Coach Roy Williams said. "The only teams we are being beaten by now are teams in our league. I still think the ACC is the best in the country."

The Rating Percentage Index, which measures a school's strength and is used to help determine NCAA tournament bids, also indicates that the ACC is the nation's strongest conference. Since 1999, the conference considered that season's best league has received at least six bids.

Virginia Tech could prove an interesting case. The Hokies (12-7) are 5-3 in league play; typically schools with .500 conference records or better from leagues as strong as the ACC earn NCAA tournament invitations.

But Virginia Tech's nonconference schedule included six schools ranked 250 or worse in the RPI and the Hokies lost to VMI, which the RPI rates as one of the bottom 10 teams in the country. As a result, the Hokies' RPI is 122, having improved from a ghastly 229 last month. No team with an RPI worse than 74 has ever received an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament.

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Jerry Palm, a top RPI analyst who runs a Web site that simulates the index, doesn't anticipate Virginia Tech's RPI improving to much better than 80, even with a winning record over the second half of the conference season. In fact, Palm said Virginia Tech doesn't deserve to be in the NCAA tournament discussion unless the Hokies post at least 10 ACC victories.

Virginia Tech's situation could affect other ACC schools that will be on the brink of a tournament berth. The selection committee rarely passes over one school for another school lower in the conference standings; it's happened only twice in the past seven years. So if the Hokies finish with a .500 conference record and get passed over, Palm said, the team immediately below them in the standings could also be overlooked.

"It has the potential of keeping that other team out," Palm said. "The committee could say, 'They're not even as good as Virginia Tech the last two-thirds of the season. Why should we take them?' "

Miami (13-7, 4-5) is in better position to reach the NCAA tournament because its RPI is a respectable 65. The Hurricanes, who also boast a victory at Florida on Dec. 4, feature a dynamic three-guard attack led by sophomore Guillermo Diaz, who has scored at least 15 points in all but one of his last 11 games.

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There was hardly an indication that Miami could compete this season. Miami lost 11 of its last 12 games last season, fired its coach, lost its best player to graduation, watched two players transfer and lost its top committed recruit. What's more, Miami was picked to finish last in the ACC.

"Most of the people who vote on those preseason polls haven't seen any of the kids play," Florida State Coach Leonard Hamilton said. "Most couldn't name three players on either of those teams, and it proves that's why you play the season. I think it's good that those teams [Miami and Virginia Tech] come in and play well because it gives our league even more credibility."

The success of the expansion teams can at least partially be attributed to the unbalanced schedule, in which every team does not play every school twice. For example, Miami benefits in the second half of the season by only playing Maryland once and not having to face North Carolina again.

The remaining schedule also sets up favorably for Maryland (13-6, 4-4) because the Terrapins will play their toughest opponents at home -- Duke and North Carolina -- and do not play Wake Forest or Georgia Tech again in the regular season. Maryland's challenge is that the Terps have been so erratic the past two weeks that no game appears a certain victory.

On the other hand, Georgia Tech (13-6, 4-4) is hurt by having to play five of its final eight games on the road. And consider Duke, which won its first 15 games of the season at least partially because its schedule doesn't toughen until the second half of the ACC season.

The Blue Devils (16-2, 6-2) have lost two of their last three games as their lack of depth has begun to take its toll. Duke's schedule does not ease up: The Blue Devils next face Georgia Tech and North Carolina and still have road games against North Carolina, Maryland and Georgia Tech.

"As we get to the end of the first half, the symmetry we used to have, we don't have anymore," Wake Forest Coach Skip Prosser said. "The point about who a team has played is well taken. But I don't think that should diminish what Duke has done."

The schedule hasn't diminished what North Carolina has done in dominating all but one opponent throughout January. The Tar Heels' lone January loss came at Wake Forest. Unfortunately, the unbalanced schedule doesn't allow for a rematch between the two league favorites until perhaps in the postseason.

"The best team, I think, will show up the last eight games," Maryland Coach Gary Williams said. "Everyone has had their games when they've played well and didn't play well. By the time you play eight games, you're settled into what you are."