WASHINGTON — If it’s Tuesday ... It’s Primary Day in Kentucky (where polling places close at 7:00 p.m. ET), North Carolina (7:30 p.m. ET), Pennsylvania (8:00 p.m. ET), Idaho (11:00 p.m. ET) and Oregon (11:00 p.m. ET). ... President Biden visits Buffalo to meet with victims’ families and deliver remarks. ... Dallas police arrest suspect in hair salon shooting. ... New York’s new congressional map shakes up the state. ... And 1-in-3 of all ads in the GOP’s Pennsylvania Senate race have mentioned Trump.
But first: While Pennsylvania has gotten the bulk of the attention among today’s May 17 primaries — and deservedly so — don’t forget about the other noteworthy contests we’re watching.
North Carolina Senate GOP primary
This is the other contentious Republican primary where Donald Trump has endorsed a frontrunner in a presidential battleground state. In this race, Trump is backing Rep. Ted Budd, who spoke on stage at the Trump rally in North Carolina last month, over former Republican Gov. Pat McCrory, his top opponent. Sparse public polling has shown Budd with a lead. (Former Rep. Mark Walker and Army veteran Marjorie Eastman are also running.)
It’s been a brutal campaign on the airwaves. The Club for Growth has hit McCrory as too liberal, and a “Mitt Romney Republican,” using McCrory’s critical comments of Trump’s lies about the 2020 election to frame him as anti-Trump. McCrory has tried to use some out-of-context Budd quotes to claim he’s soft on Russia, link Budd to George Soros through donations to a family company, and push back on the attacks from his right flank.
Idaho Governor GOP primary
Republican Gov. Brad Little is facing a primary challenge from multiple candidates, including Lt. Gov. Janice McGeachin, as he runs for a second term. If you recall, McGeachin reversed Little’s mask mandates when he traveled out of state, and she has been endorsed by Trump and some local leaders.
Oregon-05 Democratic primary
This is arguably today’s marquee moderate-vs.-progressive contest, where incumbent Blue Dog Rep. Kurt Schrader (endorsed by President Biden) is running against progressive challenger Jamie McLeod-Skinner (endorsed by Sen. Elizabeth Warren and other local Dems).
Despite receiving Biden’s endorsement, Schrader initially opposed the pandemic relief package known as the American Rescue Plan; he did vote in favor of the final version. This will be a contest to follow in the general election. The Cook Political Report rates the race Lean Democratic.
N.C.-04 Democratic primary
This is another moderate-vs.-progressive contest to replace retiring Rep. David Price, D-N.C. Durham County Commissioner Nida Allam is backed by progressives like Elizabeth Warren, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders and New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. If she wins the primary and general, Allam would be the fifth Muslim elected to Congress (pending any other Muslim candidates winning as well).
State Sen. Valerie Foushee has been in the state legislature since 2013 and was a long-time school board member before then. She has the support from EMILY’s List and the Congressional Black Caucus PAC, and prominent Democrats like Reps. G.K. Butterfield, Jim Clyburn and Alma Adams.
Former American Idol runner up and 2014 congressional candidate Clay Aiken is also running.
N.C.-11 GOP primary
Will Rep. Madison Cawthorn, R-N.C., survive his primary challenge? Cawthorn’s opponents have tried to cast him as someone who has prioritized the spotlight over getting things done for the district. Results for NC, the largest spender in the race, has run ads attacking him for seeking publicity, elevating the leaked photos and controversial statements he’s made.
North Carolina Republican Sen. Thom Tillis has backed state Sen. Chuck Edwards’ bid, and self-funder Bruce O’Connell is among the other candidates running.
A reminder: If no candidate in the Tar Heel State wins more than 30 percent of the primary vote, the top two vote-getters head to a runoff in July.
Tweet of the day
Data Download: The number of the day is … 1 in 3
That’s the portion of political ads mentioning former President Donald Trump that aired in Pennsylvania’s GOP Senate primary leading up to today’s race, according to AdImpact.
Before Trump endorsed TV personality Mehmet Oz for Senate, Oz and former hedge fund manager David McCormick vied for the president’s attention on the airwaves, running countless ads about their connections to him. Even after Oz won the coveted endorsement, McCormick continued to run ads tying himself to the former president. It’ll be up to voters today to decide whose pro-Trump messaging is more successful.
Other numbers you need to know:
1 percent: That’s the portion of ad spending in the Pennsylvania’s GOP primary for governor that’s come from state Sen. Doug Mastriano’s campaign, despite his frontrunner status.
63 percent: The share of Democratic primary voters surveyed in the latest NBC News poll who said they prefer a candidate “who proposes larger-scale policies even if they cost more and might be harder to pass into law.”
55 percent: The share of Republican primary voters surveyed in the latest NBC News poll who said Trump should continue to lead the GOP.
FOR SUBSCRIBERSCBP leaders cut out of Trump ad buy decision
FOR SUBSCRIBERSA harrowing ordeal aboard an Israel-bound plane
575,700: The number of mail ballots received by Pennsylvania county officials as of Monday morning, a sign that most votes will be cast on Tuesday, per NBC News’ Vaughn Hillyard.
$18 million: How much Pennsylvania billionaire Jeff Yass has spent on GOP and Democratic primaries in the Keystone State, per Spotlight PA.
234,088: The number of migrants U.S. border officials encountered at the U.S.-Mexico border in April, a new high.
Midterm roundup: Even more races to watch tonight
Idaho-02: GOP Rep. Mike Simpson is facing a primary challenge from personal injury attorney Bryan Smith, who unsuccessfully challenged Simpson in 2014. The race has attracted outside spending from a group funded by a Boise real estate developer, which has backed Smith, and the political arm of the Republican Main Street Partnership, which is backing Simpson. Trump hasn’t endorsed in the race.
Kentucky-03: This race will be an early test of whether new super PACs funded by cryptocurrency executives can have some success. One of those super PACs, Protect our Future, has been spending to bolster state Sen. Morgan McGarvey in the Democratic primary to replace retiring Democratic Rep. John Yarmuth. McGarvey faces state Rep. Attica Scott.
North Carolina-13: Trump’s endorsement will be tested in this competitive, open seat race, where he’s backed law student Bo Hines in the GOP primary (Hines has also had some help from the Club for Growth). The GOP primary also features self-funding attorney Kelly Daughtry, veteran Kent Keirsey, and former Rep. Renee Ellmers. Two candidates to watch on the Democratic side are state Sen. Wiley Nickel and former state Rep. Sam Searcy.
Oregon-06: There’s been some drama in this Democratic primary, which is another test of crypto’s influence, with Protect Our Future spending millions to back Carrick Flynn, a former government contractor.
FOR SUBSCRIBERSCBP leaders cut out of Trump ad buy decision
FOR SUBSCRIBERSA harrowing ordeal aboard an Israel-bound plane
House Majority PAC, which is tied to House Democratic leaders, has also launched ads to boost Flynn, drawing criticismfrom groups like the Congressional Hispanic Caucus for supporting a white male candidate over a woman of color. The caucus’ political arm, BOLD PAC, is backing former state Rep. Andrea Salinas.
Pennsylvania-12: The Democratic primary to replace retiring Rep. Mike Doyle in the deep-blue district has been a clash between progressives and the party establishment. Doyle has backed attorney Steve Irwin, while state Rep. Summer Lee, a member of the Democratic Socialists of America, has endorsements from high-profile progressives including Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.
Elsewhere on the campaign trail:
N.Y. redistricting: A state court released a draft of New York’s congressional map yesterday, which, if adopted, could set up primary clashes between Democratic incumbents, NBC News’ Jane C. Timm reports.
Wisconsin Senate: Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., is heading to Wisconsin to campaign for Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes in the Democratic Senate primary, NBC News’ Shaq Brewster reports. Barnes is running to take on Warren’s Republican colleague, Ron Johnson.
Milwaukee Bucks executive Alex Lasry is going up with a new ad that features him and his wife, Lauren, talking about issues like paid leave, abortion rights and lowering costs.
Maryland Governor: Former Labor Secretary and DNC Chair Tom Perez’s new ad features former President Obama praising him.
Texas-28: The independent expenditure arm for EMILY’s List, known as “Women Vote!,” launched new English and Spanish-language TV ads against Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar ahead of his May 24 primary runoff against attorney Jessica Cisneros. The group has reserved $548,000 so far through the runoff, per AdImpact.
Ad watch: 2020 Vision
The credibility of the 2020 election continues to be a cornerstone issue in GOP primaries across the country, despite no evidence of widespread voter fraud.
In Nevada’s GOP Senate primary, Army veteran Sam Brown is out with a new ad attacking former state attorney general Adam Laxalt for not moving quickly enough to contest the state’s presidential election results. (Laxalt was Trump’s Nevada co-chair in 2020 and was a public face of the campaign’s push to challenge the results.)
“In 2020, he filed the voter fraud lawsuits late, weeks after the deadlines to challenge the legal votes,” a narrator in the ad says. “As the former attorney general, didn’t he know better? Now, he’s blaming others.”
It’s a tactic Brown has taken on the debate stage, and now the airwaves, to try to sway primary voters away from the Trump-backed Laxalt.
ICYMI: What ELSE is happening in the world
Abbott Nutrition has agreed to terms with the FDA that would allow it to re-open a Michigan plant to produce more baby formula amid the shortage.
Republican candidates have unleashed a flurry of ads attacking transgender rights, NBC’s Marc Caputo reports.
Join NBCU Academy, Dasha Burns and Mark Murray at 3:30 p.m. ET on Instagram live where they’ll take questions about the political landscape and how NBC is covering today’s PA primaries.
