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Last Updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 06:23 PM
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Iran war

Prediction market bets on the Iran war top $2 billion, NBC News analysis shows

Placing wagers on when the U.S. will strike Iran next is “grossly immoral,” one lawmaker said.
Photo illustration showing Donald Trump, a map of the Strait of Hormuz, "Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?" text from a Polymarket bet.
NBC News reviewed a range of bets and found that the vast majority pertained directly to military action.Justine Goode / NBC News

More than $2 billion in bets have been wagered globally related to the Iran war on Polymarket — the world’s largest prediction market — an NBC News analysis revealed.

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