The Lid: What a Trump, Clinton Match-up Could Come Down To

Welcome to The Lid, your afternoon dose of the 2016 ethos… Mitt Romney will deliver an address about the state of the GOP presidential race tomorrow, at which he’s widely expected to tell anti-establishment Republican voters to go to their room and think about what they’ve done.

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‘16 from 30,000

With a good (but not sterling) night for Donald Trump in the books -- and some big contests looming later this month -- it’s still a bit early to start calling him the presumptive nominee. (Mitt Romney certainly thinks Trumpmentum can be halted; the elder statesman is slated to give a speech critical of Trump’s rhetoric tomorrow.) But definitely it’s not too early to talk about the bigger general election picture if Trump is indeed the party’s standard-bearer. And we’ve learned two big things about the race from the contests so far that can help inform that discussion. One is that there’s no denying that the Donald phenomenon is good for GOP turnout. As our colleague Leigh Ann Caldwell calculated yesterday, Republican turnout this cycle has broken records in almost every single state. The other thing we’ve learned is about demographics on the Democratic side. Hillary Clinton is seeing the kind of margins with African-Americans that Barack Obama enjoyed eight years ago -- and, although there’s a slightly more muddled picture when it comes to Hispanics in the caucus states of Colorado and Nevada - her monster win with Texas Latinos Tuesday night provides some pretty compelling evidence that she’s quite capable of shoring up those voters nationally. It’s been said before, but with a Trump v. Clinton race, we’d be dealing with two candidates who are well-known and pretty decisively defined by their foes.

Here’s the huge question mark: Does a candidate Trump bring in enough new voters to offset the built-in demographic advantage that Democrats are believed to have, based on the share of the minority vote increasing nationwide? And how big would the mobilization of minority voters against him be? Is there a universe in which a GOP candidate can lose the African American and Latino votes by margins worse than McCain or Romney and still remain competitive with a massive influx of once-disaffected white voters? And if that’s the equation, doesn’t the best organized campaign win?

POPPING ON NBC POLITICS

• Ben Carson withdrew from tomorrow’s GOP debate and said he sees no “path forward” for his presidential run.
• Mitt Romney will deliver a speech on the 2016 race tomorrow and is expected to continue to rip Donald Trump while voicing support for Rubio and Cruz.
• Major GOP donors are pushing to convince donor friends to fund an effort to cripple Trump, NBC’s Kasie Hunt reports. And other conservative efforts to dump Trump are gaining urgency, NBC’s Leigh Ann Caldwell reports.
• Exit polls indicate Republican voters care surprisingly less about immigration than political watchers may think.
• Chris Christie’s face standing behind Donald Trump last night is now a certified meme.
• And from First Read: It’s the final countdown! GOP rivals have two weeks to take down Trump.

FOR THE RECORD…

For Subscribers

FOR SUBSCRIBERSCBP leaders cut out of Trump ad buy decision

FOR SUBSCRIBERSAmerican passenger drafted goodbye texts to her family as Flydubai plane plummeted

FOR SUBSCRIBERSCornell rape allegation pushes embattled New York prosecutor into national spotlight

FOR SUBSCRIBERSAbdul El-Sayed tries to woo MAHA voters as Democrats seek inroads with RFK’s supporters

FOR SUBSCRIBERSKratom-like substances are popping up in a typically benign supplement

FOR SUBSCRIBERSGOP super PAC increases its spending for Sen. Jon Husted in tough Ohio race

FOR SUBSCRIBERSRecords reveal tumultuous marriage between slain New York Times executive and wife

FOR SUBSCRIBERSFrom clean energy warrior to ‘wall of shame,’ James Talarico reverses on a fossil fuel money pledge

FOR SUBSCRIBERSCongressional staff planned official trip with luxury stops in Italy and France weeks before election

FOR SUBSCRIBERSA harrowing ordeal aboard an Israel-bound plane

FOR SUBSCRIBERSOpenAI CEO Sam Altman to skip congressional hearing on rogue AI agents

FOR SUBSCRIBERSKey DOJ lawyers departed Trump ‘grand conspiracy’ probe amid pressure to produce, source says

FOR SUBSCRIBERSTrump’s new AI chatbot often links to a site launched under Clinton 26 years ago

FOR SUBSCRIBERSAt MAHA summit, industry CEOs the movement once vilified take the stage

FOR SUBSCRIBERSThis Paralympian has two goals: Win medals and give away $500,000 to her teammates

“They won some caucus somewhere. Where was it, Minnesota or something?”

• John Kasich responding to the criticism he is taking votes from Marco Rubio.

TOMORROW’S SKED

For Subscribers

FOR SUBSCRIBERSCBP leaders cut out of Trump ad buy decision

FOR SUBSCRIBERSAmerican passenger drafted goodbye texts to her family as Flydubai plane plummeted

FOR SUBSCRIBERSCornell rape allegation pushes embattled New York prosecutor into national spotlight

FOR SUBSCRIBERSAbdul El-Sayed tries to woo MAHA voters as Democrats seek inroads with RFK’s supporters

FOR SUBSCRIBERSKratom-like substances are popping up in a typically benign supplement

FOR SUBSCRIBERSGOP super PAC increases its spending for Sen. Jon Husted in tough Ohio race

FOR SUBSCRIBERSRecords reveal tumultuous marriage between slain New York Times executive and wife

FOR SUBSCRIBERSFrom clean energy warrior to ‘wall of shame,’ James Talarico reverses on a fossil fuel money pledge

FOR SUBSCRIBERSCongressional staff planned official trip with luxury stops in Italy and France weeks before election

FOR SUBSCRIBERSA harrowing ordeal aboard an Israel-bound plane

FOR SUBSCRIBERSOpenAI CEO Sam Altman to skip congressional hearing on rogue AI agents

FOR SUBSCRIBERSKey DOJ lawyers departed Trump ‘grand conspiracy’ probe amid pressure to produce, source says

FOR SUBSCRIBERSTrump’s new AI chatbot often links to a site launched under Clinton 26 years ago

FOR SUBSCRIBERSAt MAHA summit, industry CEOs the movement once vilified take the stage

FOR SUBSCRIBERSThis Paralympian has two goals: Win medals and give away $500,000 to her teammates

The GOP candidates (minus Ben Carson) gather for a debate in Detroit.

Bernie Sanders campaigns in Nebraska and Kansas.