The Lid: White Voters Could End Up Being the Trouble for Trump

Welcome to The Lid, your afternoon dose of the 2016 ethos…Donald Trump on Wednesday said he doesn’t even need commercials given how much earned media he garners. Though we have no polling on it, we have to assume this idea has broader support among swing-state television viewers than anything proposed to date this campaign.

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‘16 from 30,000

Donald Trump’s problems with minority voters have been well documented. But our colleague Dante Chinni notes that white voters may prove to be a significant problem of their own. Specifically, college-educated white people in Midwestern states critical to win the White House. According to our latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, Trump holds a 23-point edge (54-31%) over Hillary Clinton among white, non-Hispanic voters without a college degree. But among white voters with a college degree? He trails Clinton 44 to 43 percent. For comparison, our October 2012 poll found Romney leading Obama 57-36% among whites with a bachelor’s degree and 53-41% among those with a bachelor’s or more. Chinni notes that the white-vote split can have serious implications in November. Populated metro areas near Philadelphia, Columbus, Milwaukee and Detroit have a significant number of college-educated white voters. And those areas have plenty of votes, meaning closer margins would force Trump to find other places to make up for it. It also means Trump’s problems with minority voters won’t matter much if he can’t make up ground with college-educated whites.

POPPING ON NBC POLITICS

• Trump talks about Jeff Sessions as a possible VP pick, but in 2002 he supported the Alabama senator’s opponent, CNBC’s Eamon Javers reports.
• Trump is finally getting some help on the air in battleground states from the National Rifle Association.
• This key group of white voters could doom Donald Trump, Dante Chinni writes.
• Super PACs supporting Trump are struggling to meet their fundraising goals, Leigh Ann Caldwell reports. `
• Hillary Clinton may be more likely to choose a Tim Kaine-ish VP pick but Elizabeth Warren may be the potential pick that would raise the most cash, Alex Seitz-Wald reports.
• A new Pew Research Center study shows an eye-popping difference in how Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are viewed in 15 countries around the world.
• McCain is hitting back at Donald Trump's renewed calls for torture in the aftermath of the deadly terror attack at the Istanbul airport in Turkey.
• Ivanka Trump promised a “convention unlike any we've ever seen.”
• And from First Read: Trump clashes with big business.

FOR THE RECORD…

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For Subscribers

FOR SUBSCRIBERSAbdul El-Sayed tries to woo MAHA voters as Democrats seek inroads with RFK’s supporters

FOR SUBSCRIBERSKratom-like substances are popping up in a typically benign supplement

FOR SUBSCRIBERSGOP super PAC increases its spending for Sen. Jon Husted in tough Ohio race

FOR SUBSCRIBERSRecords reveal tumultuous marriage between slain New York Times executive and wife

FOR SUBSCRIBERSFrom clean energy warrior to ‘wall of shame,’ James Talarico reverses on a fossil fuel money pledge

FOR SUBSCRIBERSCongressional staff planned official trip with luxury stops in Italy and France weeks before election

FOR SUBSCRIBERSA harrowing ordeal aboard an Israel-bound plane

FOR SUBSCRIBERSOpenAI CEO Sam Altman to skip congressional hearing on rogue AI agents

FOR SUBSCRIBERSKey DOJ lawyers departed Trump ‘grand conspiracy’ probe amid pressure to produce, source says

FOR SUBSCRIBERSTrump’s new AI chatbot often links to a site launched under Clinton 26 years ago

FOR SUBSCRIBERSAt MAHA summit, industry CEOs the movement once vilified take the stage

FOR SUBSCRIBERSThis Paralympian has two goals: Win medals and give away $500,000 to her teammates

FOR SUBSCRIBERSCornell rape allegation spotlights stringent New York state laws that have long drawn criticism

FOR SUBSCRIBERSThe debate over AI’s future rages on both coasts

FOR SUBSCRIBERSDecades-old march dispute reignites in Northern Ireland, threatening political crisis

“I don’t even need commercials, if you want to know the truth.”

-- Donald Trump during a rally in Maine on Wednesday.