The Lid: Why the Caucus Process Will Matter in Iowa

Welcome to The Lid, your afternoon dose of the 2016 ethos… Michael Bloomberg is reportedly considering a potential 2016 run, which makes sense because there is a notable vacuum in the 2016 race for New York billionaires who have made their money with companies they named after themselves!

‘16 from 30,000

Because we’re just a week out from Iowa Fight Night, it’s not a bad time to refresh folks’ memories about the unique quirks of how caucuses work. And, specifically, how they don’t particularly reward candidates with deep but localized support. In Iowa, there are a total of 1,681 precincts that will meet to caucus, plus Democratic satellite and tele-caucuses. But the NUMBER of delegates awarded in each county doesn’t fluctuate even if turnout in those areas is way up, As MSNBC’s Alex Seitz-Wald notes, the three counties with big Iowa universities – strongholds of Bernie Sanders’ support - award only 12 percent of delegates statewide. In other words, even if the folks who are Feelin’ the Bern in Iowa show up in droves in the geographic areas most favorable to him, Sanders will need broad support well outside of those power centers to really rack up the score. Another quirk worth noting, by the way, is that candidates in the Iowa Democratic caucuses need at least 15 percent support in any given precinct to earn delegates from that gathering. So keep an eye on who Iowa O’Malley supporters are considering as their second-choice pick; it could actually make a difference in some of the most competitive parts of the state.

POPPING ON NBC POLITICS

• NBC’s Danny Freeman and Monica Alba report on the flood of Clinton surrogates fanning out in Iowa.
• ICYMI this morning: Former presidential candidate Rick Perry endorsed Ted Cruz.
• A superPAC supporting Ted Cruz is going negative against Trump.
• Benjy Sarlin offers a briefing on what to watch out for in Iowa with one week to go.
• Here’s a good read from Alex Seitz-Wald on how geography is on Hillary Clinton’s side in Iowa.
• NBC’s Monica Alba writes the tale of two rallies -- the difference in both style and substance between a Trump and Clinton event.
• And from First Read this AM: Get ready for a long fight for the Democratic nod.

FOR THE RECORD…

“I think Bernie Sanders is a good candidate for president.. of Sweden.”

• Marco Rubio ribbing Bernie Sanders during an event in Des Moines on Monday

TOMORROW’S SKED

For Subscribers

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FOR SUBSCRIBERSKey DOJ lawyers departed Trump ‘grand conspiracy’ probe amid pressure to produce, source says

FOR SUBSCRIBERSTrump’s new AI chatbot often links to a site launched under Clinton 26 years ago

FOR SUBSCRIBERSAt MAHA summit, industry CEOs the movement once vilified take the stage

FOR SUBSCRIBERSThis Paralympian has two goals: Win medals and give away $500,000 to her teammates

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Ted Cruz hold seven events in Iowa. Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton, Marco Rubio, Ben Carson, Carly Fiorina, Rick Santorum, Mike Huckabee and Bernie Sanders are also in the state.

For Subscribers

FOR SUBSCRIBERSAmerican passenger drafted goodbye texts to her family as Flydubai plane plummeted

FOR SUBSCRIBERSCornell rape allegation pushes embattled New York prosecutor into national spotlight

FOR SUBSCRIBERSAbdul El-Sayed tries to woo MAHA voters as Democrats seek inroads with RFK’s supporters

FOR SUBSCRIBERSKratom-like substances are popping up in a typically benign supplement

FOR SUBSCRIBERSGOP super PAC increases its spending for Sen. Jon Husted in tough Ohio race

FOR SUBSCRIBERSRecords reveal tumultuous marriage between slain New York Times executive and wife

FOR SUBSCRIBERSFrom clean energy warrior to ‘wall of shame,’ James Talarico reverses on a fossil fuel money pledge

FOR SUBSCRIBERSCongressional staff planned official trip with luxury stops in Italy and France weeks before election

FOR SUBSCRIBERSA harrowing ordeal aboard an Israel-bound plane

FOR SUBSCRIBERSOpenAI CEO Sam Altman to skip congressional hearing on rogue AI agents

FOR SUBSCRIBERSKey DOJ lawyers departed Trump ‘grand conspiracy’ probe amid pressure to produce, source says

FOR SUBSCRIBERSTrump’s new AI chatbot often links to a site launched under Clinton 26 years ago

FOR SUBSCRIBERSAt MAHA summit, industry CEOs the movement once vilified take the stage

FOR SUBSCRIBERSThis Paralympian has two goals: Win medals and give away $500,000 to her teammates

FOR SUBSCRIBERSCornell rape allegation spotlights stringent New York state laws that have long drawn criticism

John Kasich is in New Hampshire, and Jeb Bush travels to Elko, Nevada.

After his morning stop in Iowa, Bernie Sanders heads to Minnesota.