Race of the Day: Pryor vs. Cotton in Arkansas

Editor's Note: There are just 70 days until Election Day, and the NBC News political unit each day will profile the most competitive races this midterm season.

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For Subscribers

FOR SUBSCRIBERSCBP leaders cut out of Trump ad buy decision

FOR SUBSCRIBERSAmerican passenger drafted goodbye texts to her family as Flydubai plane plummeted

FOR SUBSCRIBERSCornell rape allegation pushes embattled New York prosecutor into national spotlight

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FOR SUBSCRIBERSKratom-like substances are popping up in a typically benign supplement

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FOR SUBSCRIBERSRecords reveal tumultuous marriage between slain New York Times executive and wife

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FOR SUBSCRIBERSCongressional staff planned official trip with luxury stops in Italy and France weeks before election

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FOR SUBSCRIBERSKey DOJ lawyers departed Trump ‘grand conspiracy’ probe amid pressure to produce, source says

FOR SUBSCRIBERSTrump’s new AI chatbot often links to a site launched under Clinton 26 years ago

FOR SUBSCRIBERSAt MAHA summit, industry CEOs the movement once vilified take the stage

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This is the “canary in the coal mine” race, with its relatively early poll-closing time (8:30 pm ET). A win by incumbent Sen. Mark Pryor (D) would signal that Democrats are well-positioned, even in a state like Arkansas, to hold their Senate majority. Conversely, a win by opponent Rep. Tom Cotton (R) -- a rising star in the party -- gets Republicans one step closer to Senate control. Helping Pryor is his last name (his father David is the state’s former governor), as well as Cotton’s inexperience (he was elected to the House in 2012). Helping Cotton is the state’s GOP-leaning nature (Obama won just 37% of the vote in ’12), as well as midterm electorate (when fewer members of the Democratic base turn out). Polls so far have shown that the race is a coin flip.