Maybe it’s good that I’m no longer doing the Joint Mega Picks Podcast.
From 10-6 to 9-7 to 8-8, the trend is not my friend. (For the season, I’m 27-21.)
In Week 3, the best pick was Ravens over Cowboys (especially since the wild-guess score prediction was 34-30). Worst pick: Buccaneers over Vikings. Flew too close to the sun on wings of pastrami pick: Bengals over Steelers, based on the erroneous conclusion that Pittsburgh’s find-a-way magic dried up when Mike Tomlin left town.
But each week brings another opportunity to land closer to 16-0 than 0-16. Hopefully, this year’s weekly one-game slide won’t result in 7-9.
Steelers at Browns (Thursday night)
The Steelers have gone 1-7 in Cleveland since 2018. To make matters worse, the Steelers are 0-9 in Thursday night games against AFC North rivals.
What better way to turn the page on the recent past than to go to Cleveland and find a way to win? Aaron Rodgers will need to get his 42-year-old body ready to go on a short week, and the Steelers will need to play well on both sides of the ball.
Browns coach Todd Monken has plenty of experience against the Steelers, given his time with the Ravens. My brain is screaming “Browns!” but my gut is saying that the Steelers will benefit from coach Mike McCarthy’s 16-6 record in short-week games.
Steelers 17, Browns 13.
Colts vs. Commanders at London
The Colts ended a long losing streak, thanks to a Texans team that still can’t find a way out of its early-season struggles. The Commanders stunned the defending Super Bowl champions, fueled by the kind of performance from Marcus Mariota that will keep Jayden Daniels on the bench until the 32-year-old former full-time starter cools off. Mariota may have at least one more in the tank.
Commanders 24, Colts 20.
Titans at Ravens
Derrick Henry faces his former team for the first time. He’ll make them regret letting him go, if they don’t already.
Making that task easier is that the Titans can’t get anything going. Coach Robert Saleh’s reference to quarterback Cam Ward’s sacks-induced PTSD means that the clock in his brain is running out before the walls close in on a given play. That likely won’t be cured against the Ravens’ defense in Baltimore.
Ravens 30, Titans 17.
Patriots at Bills
Of all the teams in the NFL, none relish the regression of the Patriots more than the Bills. On Sunday, Buffalo could essentially nail down the AFC East and set the table for a run to the No. 1 seed, given their ability to run roughshod against overmatched division rivals.
Bills 34, Patriots 21.
Jets at Bears
Former Lions coordinators get together in Chicago. The Jets are improving, but the Bears have the better team on both sides of the ball — even without their starting quarterback. Or their preferred backup.
Bears 27, Jets 17.
Jaguars at Bengals
Trevor Lawrence has beaten every team in the AFC except the Bengals. Last year, Jake Browning engineered the win after Joe Burrow left with a toe injury. And if, as Burrow believes, the 2026 Bengals have 2019 LSU vibes, a 2-2 start is not acceptable.
Bengals 28, Jaguars 27.
Cowboys at Texans
The battle of Texas takes a back seat to the fact that both teams need this one, badly. Until Houston can muster consistent and effective offense, it’s hard to envision them turning it around.
Last year, the Texans became the second team to get to the playoffs after starting 0-3. This year, they may end up having a chance to be the second team to get there after starting 0-4.
Cowboys 27, Texans 20.
Cardinals at Giants
The Giants have a chance to get another win while they further adjust to life without Jaxson Dart. And Jameis Winston needs to start worrying about staving off J.J. McCarthy.
Giants 23, Cardinals 17.
Rams at Eagles
Last year, a wild play on a game-winning field-goal attempt by the Rams gave the Eagles a win. This year, the Rams will make sure to not let it be that close.
Rams 30, Eagles 20.
Packers at Buccaneers
The Bay of Pigs is back. If Green Bay with extra time to prepare can’t beat an undrafted rookie quarterback making his first start, they should dissolve the corporation.
Packers 21, Buccaneers 13.
Dolphins at Vikings
This is a candidate for Correction Sunday. But the Dolphins have lost one of their best players for the year (De’Von Achane) and the Vikings’ defense is good enough to win games even if the offense adopts a punt-on-first-down strategy.
Vikings 24, Dolphins 14.
Chiefs at Raiders
The NFL is better when the Raiders are good. It’s at its best when the Chiefs-Raiders rivalry is relevant.
Chiefs 23, Raiders 16.
Chargers at Seahawks
There’s plenty of Harbaugh DNA in this one, literally and figuratively. That won’t matter much, because the Seahawks got an unexpected wakeup call against the Commanders.
Seahawks 27, Chargers 13.
Broncos at 49ers
The Shanahan Bowl has high stakes for both teams. While the injuries are piling up (again) in San Francisco, they have enough to hold serve in the latest potential Super Bowl preview.
49ers 24, Broncos 20.
Lions at Panthers
The Panthers have carried over less of the “division champs” vibe and more of the “8-9-for-a-reason” vibe. And the Lions definitely can’t afford to lose games they should win.
Lions 31, Panthers 21.
Falcons at Saints
Twenty years after one of the most significant regular-season games in New Orleans history between these two teams, the Saints can’t lose to their most despised rivals, can they?
Saints 23, Falcons 17.
