Conflicting Numbers but One Clear Conclusion – Clinton Is Ahead

In the last 24 hours, one national poll showed Hillary Clinton with a 14-point lead. Another had her ahead by just three points. And another found it right in the middle -- Clinton up nine points.

In the battleground states, meanwhile, one survey had Clinton leading in New Hampshire by nine points while another one had her up four in the Granite State. Then there was that recent Florida poll that found Donald Trump ahead by two.

How to make sense of the plethora of polls? Well, here’s an answer: Clinton is clearly ahead, though the margin is larger in some polls than others.

And when looking at the battleground states, she still has the easiest path to the 270 electoral votes.

Looking at the national polls, the Huffington Post shows Clinton with an average lead of seven points in the surveys it recognizes, while the RealClearPolitics average has it at five points.

To put those numbers into perspective, President Obama won the national vote by seven percentage points in 2008 and by four points in 2012.

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What’s more, on this same day in the 2012 cycle, Obama held just a 0.6-point lead over Mitt Romney in the Huffington Post poll tracker.

For Subscribers

FOR SUBSCRIBERSAmerican passenger drafted goodbye texts to her family as Flydubai plane plummeted

FOR SUBSCRIBERSCornell rape allegation pushes embattled New York prosecutor into national spotlight

FOR SUBSCRIBERSAbdul El-Sayed tries to woo MAHA voters as Democrats seek inroads with RFK’s supporters

FOR SUBSCRIBERSKratom-like substances are popping up in a typically benign supplement

FOR SUBSCRIBERSGOP super PAC increases its spending for Sen. Jon Husted in tough Ohio race

FOR SUBSCRIBERSRecords reveal tumultuous marriage between slain New York Times executive and wife

FOR SUBSCRIBERSFrom clean energy warrior to ‘wall of shame,’ James Talarico reverses on a fossil fuel money pledge

FOR SUBSCRIBERSCongressional staff planned official trip with luxury stops in Italy and France weeks before election

FOR SUBSCRIBERSA harrowing ordeal aboard an Israel-bound plane

FOR SUBSCRIBERSOpenAI CEO Sam Altman to skip congressional hearing on rogue AI agents

FOR SUBSCRIBERSKey DOJ lawyers departed Trump ‘grand conspiracy’ probe amid pressure to produce, source says

FOR SUBSCRIBERSTrump’s new AI chatbot often links to a site launched under Clinton 26 years ago

FOR SUBSCRIBERSAt MAHA summit, industry CEOs the movement once vilified take the stage

FOR SUBSCRIBERSThis Paralympian has two goals: Win medals and give away $500,000 to her teammates

FOR SUBSCRIBERSCornell rape allegation spotlights stringent New York state laws that have long drawn criticism

Turning to the state polls, Clinton continues to enjoy healthy leads in Pennsylvania and New Hampshire – which, according to NBC’s battleground map, puts her above the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency.

And as for Florida, Clinton holds nearly a 2-point lead from the average of polls in the state. In fact, of the polls that NBC News recognizes, Trump has led in just one Florida poll since the first presidential debate.

And a little reality check on the Sunshine State: It’s a must-win state for Trump, while Clinton can cross 270 electoral votes without it.